Red Bull braces for its most formidable challenge yet

Formula One is one of the most expensive sports in the world. Teams spend a couple of hundred million dollars yearly just to get two cars onto the track. Compared to other sports, teams in F1 and motorsports in general, are run like industrial businesses with long lead-in times as success is seldom found overnight.

It is time consuming to put the seeds and structures needed to fight for titles, and it could be years before they bear fruit. But, when a once well-oiled set-up starts to disintegrate, it can spiral downward quickly.

As the 2024 F1 season resumes with the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort this Sunday, one of the big questions ahead of the second half is whether defending champion Red Bull, now amid a tricky transition phase, can be dethroned. Red Bull has dominated the sport for the last two years but has a real fight on its hands for the first time since the new technical regulations kicked into effect in 2022.

Blazing start

The Austrian team started the year strongly, winning seven out of the first 10 races with Max Verstappen leading the charge. However, rivals McLaren and Mercedes have caught up and shared the spoils in the last four rounds.

While Verstappen still holds a commanding 78-point lead over McLaren’s Lando Norris in the drivers’ standings, Red Bull’s position in the constructors’ list is far more vulnerable.

The energy drinks giant leads McLaren by just 42 but has been losing ground over the last few months. If McLaren continues to reduce the gap at the rate it did before the summer break, and with 10 starts remaining, it is on course to overtake Red Bull before the end of the season.

For a car that started as the class of the field in the early part of the year, Red Bull has not been able to match the development rate of its rivals. At a time when it is facing the heat on the track, things are not rosy behind the scenes either.

Big shock

Earlier in 2024, Red Bull’s Chief Technical Officer Adrian Newey, widely considered the best car designer to have graced F1, announced that he would leave the organisation. Newey has been integral to the team’s success since joining in 2006, assembling the technical structure that won six constructors’ and seven drivers’ crowns.

When Red Bull entered the sport led by an ambitious but inexperienced team boss — Christian Horner — it wasn’t taken seriously by its rivals. The unit was seen as an amateur racing operation just looking to market its fizzy drink. The hiring of Newey from McLaren was a coup, showing that the team meant business and had laid down the marker.

However, since the death of Red Bull founder Dietrich Mateschitz in 2022, there have been reports of a power struggle between Horner and Helmut Marko, an advisor who has handled the side’s young driver programme.

Horner was accused of harassment by a woman employee — he was eventually cleared of it — and the issue seems to have created fissures in the team. It was said to be one of the reasons for Newey to end his 18-year association with the team. Even as Red Bull was reeling from Newey’s departure, another key person behind the success has also chosen to walk out.

Sporting Director Jonathan Wheatley recently resigned and will lead Audi’s F1 project from next year. Like Newey, Wheatley has been part of Red Bull since 2006 and made it one of the sharpest operators on the race track, especially during pit stops.

He was also said to have played a crucial role in persuading former FIA Race Director Michael Massi over the radio to resume racing on the last lap of the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix during a late Safety Car period. Massi’s decision to restart the race without following the proper rules allowed Verstappen to pass Lewis Hamilton on the last lap of the season’s final race and clinch his maiden title under controversial circumstances.

When a car has a significant pace advantage over its rivals, like what Red Bull enjoyed in 2022 and 2023, pit stops and race operations might not seem vital. But it has been a story of small margins this year. In races at Imola, Canada and Spain, Verstappen won despite not having the quickest car on the grid simply because the strategy calls were perfect. McLaren, arguably, had the fastest car at those venues but could not capitalise on it because decision-making went awry at critical times.

Perez-sized problem

As if losing two key technical people is not enough, Red Bull faces a Sergio Perez-sized problem. While reigning champion Verstappen is proving every weekend why he is the highest-paid driver on the grid, Perez, his rear-gunner, has not justified his spot. The Mexican (131) has scored less than 50% of Verstappen’s season-leading points haul (277). Perez’s poor form has pushed Red Bull into a one-car outfit, costing points in the constructors’ race and allowing McLaren more than a sniff at the title.

It is important to note that while the drivers’ crown is the most coveted, the constructors’ championship matters more as it determines the team’s prize money.

Even staff bonuses are linked to the constructors’ ladder, and Perez’s meagre returns could prove dear to the whole organisation.

There was even speculation that Perez, who has a contract at least until the end of next season, could be replaced mid-season. For now, he has managed to retain his seat, but how long will Red Bull persist before losing patience?

Meanwhile, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has not given up hope of luring Verstappen away from Red Bull. The fact that he has not yet named a replacement for the Ferrari-bound Hamilton is evidence of that.

F1 history is replete with examples of a team falling off the cliff once key personnel depart. Michael Schumacher won his first two championships with Benetton in 1994 and 1995, but once he left for Ferrari along with the team’s chief architects (Ross Brawn and Rory Byrne), Benetton became a spent force. Similarly, the Prancing Horse has struggled to recreate the success of the early 2000s during the Jean Todt-Schumacher-Brawn-Byrne era and hasn’t won a title since 2008.

Over the past three years, Red Bull has done well after ending Mercedes’ long dominance (2014 to 2021). The Austrian team’s biggest challenge begins now as it looks to douse multiple fires amidst increased competition. When racing resumes in Verstappen’s home country base on Sunday, Red Bull will hope to rediscover its early season form and manoeuvre through a period of transition that has tripped many a successful sporting franchise.